14 responses

  1. BK
    November 2, 2013

    “They made it sound like the EU only opened its internal borders once every country had more or less attained a similar level of economic performance. But EU countries range in per capita income (adjusted for purchasing power) from the $15K-$20K range (for countries like Bulgaria, Romania, and Poland) up to the $40K-$50K range (for countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria). The fact of the matter is, as Bryan and Wadhwa pointed out, that none of the catastrophes which Unz and those of like minds have insisted are sure to happen under open borders actually happened in the EU. And Mexico has a higher per capita income than Bulgaria, mind you!”

    The use of Bulgaria in this context looks quantitatively absurd. The population of Bulgarians worldwide is 9 million, while the EU population is over 500 million.

    About 3 in 10 Bulgarians already live outside of Bulgaria, with a thin majority of the migration coming since 1991, and emigration continues to shrink the population at home. The numbers are higher for young people, with the old remaining behind. Education and human capital levels of Bulgarians are very high, with Bulgarians doing very well in skill-based immigration systems like Canada’s. Bulgarian emigrants and their descendants have much better economic and social outcomes in rich countries than low-skill migrants from Mexico. The same has been true of Eastern European migrants more generally in the OECD.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bulgaria
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_diaspora
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Bulgaria

    Mexico’s GDP per capita is higher than that of countries containing over 5 billion people. You mention an income ratio of 2:1 to 3:1 for the extremes within the EU.

    Sub-Saharan Africa alone has a population of 800 million and is projected to reach 4 billion this century, with an income ratio of over 20:1 with rich EU countries on average. That population is very young and rapidly growing, with demographic projections and migration intention surveys indicating that it would be a primary source of migrants under open borders, as other high population regions are older, slower growing, aging rapidly, and have smaller income gaps with the rich world. Human capital and education levels are low, and unselected migrants and their descendants from the region have historically had relatively poor income and social outcomes in rich countries.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-Saharan_Africa#Demographics
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sub-saharan-africa/gdp-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2341084/Global-population-soar-11-billion-2100-African-population-quadruples.html
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Africa#Participation
    http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2010/09/dont-believe-hype-somali-immigration-to.html

    So we are talking about orders of magnitude more migration, with much larger human capital gaps and across far larger income disparities.

    Someone who denies that shouldn’t use “double world GDP” estimates that assume it. But if that is the scenario being discussed, then Bulgaria and Eastern European EU integration is a deeply misleading argument for the extension of similar union to the world’s worst off countries. The numbers would be vastly different, the migrant characteristics vastly different, and the historical empirical performance of migrants from the different sources has been vastly different.

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    • Hansjoerg Walther
      November 2, 2013

      It is not just Bulgaria, but also Romania, the Baltic states, Poland and Hungary which are in a bracket from 15K to 25K, i.e. a lot poorer than the rich EU countries. Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are roughly on a par with old-EU Portugal or Greece at 25K to 30K.

      The former countries have a population of somewhat more than 80 million (the size of the German population), the latter somewhat less than 20 million. The influx of immigrants has been anything but overwhelming. As for Germany, there were in 2012 (a year with a peak in immigration):

      – 184K immigrants from Poland (no restrictions), but als 114K who left for Poland
      – 117K from Romania and 71K in the other direction
      – 59K from Bulgaria and 34K to Bulgaria
      – 55K from Hungary (no restrictions) and 29K to Hungary

      So net immigration from Poland was less than 0.1% of the German population, and much less for the other three countries. This doesn’t mean that the perception in Germany is in line with the facts. If you follow the media you can get the impression there is veritable Migration of Peoples going on (up to this wording).

      German cities have been whining about the “mass influx,” the same cities that as a recent microcensus showed did not know the number of their inhabitants by a wide margin. Berlin lost 180K inhabitants out of 3.5 million in one sweep, but the city felt overwhelmed from acute pain because of 2K asylum seekers. The Princess and the Pea.

      This does not address your broader point for countries with an even larger differential, but it resets the baseline somewhat. I could imagine that under open borders very poor countries would experience emigration of 30% to 50% of their population over time (perhaps over a generation). 30% is, if I remember correctly, the figure for Ireland in the 19th century, and 50% is what you have in cases like Moldova (over a quarter century, no real open borders, though).

      Source for immigration and emigration data:

      http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/157446/umfrage/hauptherkunftslaender-der-zuwanderer-nach-deutschland-2009/

      http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/157450/umfrage/hauptziellaender-der-auswanderer-aus-deutschland-2009/

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    • Hansjoerg Walther
      November 2, 2013

      Here’s a map with disposable monthly income per capita in dollars (PPP?). Data were not sampled at the same time, but I guess if they had it wouldn’t change the general picture much:

      Bulgaria: 414
      Romania: 485
      Hungary: 650
      Poland: 866

      Germany: 2.865
      Switzerland: 5.600

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_Europe_by_monthly_average_wage

      Reply

  2. BK
    November 2, 2013

    Also, there have been restrictions on migration from the new Eastern EU members including Bulgaria and Romania that don’t expire until 2014, substantially motivated by fear of Roma migration.

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    • Hansjoerg Walther
      November 2, 2013

      As far as I know there are restrictions on immigration from Bulgaria and Romania for eight European countries, though for most of the richer ones: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21523319

      Germany and Austria did the same thing in the previous round with countries like Poland, and dragged open borders out to the last possible point. I guess that keeping Roma out plays a part in the case of Bulgaria and Romania although no one would admit it. However, Roma are only a tiny minority in both countries with 1 million combined out of about 30 million: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people

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  3. Hansjoerg Walther
    November 2, 2013

    Minimum wages and similar labor market regulations can serve as border controls for those who feel uneasy about real border controls. If my labor is not productive enough to earn the minimum wage, I am practically shut out of the labor market. If I can’t get welfare either, I have no way to live in the country, catch up with productivity there, etc. It can be just as effective as exclusion at the border.

    It is only less visible because it falls more on employers, and that makes it fun for people who think that hurting capitalists means helping the poor. But it also entails enforcement: people being rounded up as illegal workers, employers being fined, their businesses ruined. You can come to Germany from outside the EU mainly by plane, so border controls are not much heavier than checking in either.

    The German government has a pretty bad track record with such covert borders. In 1996, on the urging of trade unions, it passed a law (Arbeitnehmer-Entsendegesetz = employee delegation law) that basically says that someone who works for a company outside Germany, has to be treated according to German labor market regulations, not those at home. This way, it is easy for Social Democrats of all stripes to feel smug, because it is like you are helping poorer people. But the often explicitly stated intention was to keep Portuguese, Irish, and British construction workers out.

    Likewise, you could use many other regulations (like licensing laws, zoning laws …) to discriminate against immigrants to a point where you effectively exclude them. And that’s what has happened often in similar situations, e. g. against blacks in the US. Trade unions in the 19th century were clamoring for restrictions on women in the workforce. Etc.

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    • Hansjoerg Walther
      November 2, 2013

      Here’s a blog post related to my comment:

      http://www.achgut.com/dadgdx/index.php/dadgd/article/what_the_minimum_wage_means_for_the_young_turks_in_germany

      I’d say that lots of the regulations of a welfare state have such effects. And contra the claim how immigrants have a lot of influence on policy, it is mostly domestic citizens who make the decisions. I would not go as far as claiming that there is a deliberate plan behind it. But then there are so many ways a welfare state can create distortions that can be exploited by various domestic groups, and if they all go in one direction, it can add up to a pretty consistent program of locking out immigrants.

      There is this claim about immigrants being more of a problem in Europe than in the US. In my view, this is at best vastly overblown. And in as much as it is true for certain sub-groups, it is perhaps more a consequence of the European model.

      If I had to devise a plan to stick it to immigrants, I would include many of the policies that European welfare states do on a regular basis: concentrate them in housing projects together with domestic citizens with many of the pathologies I want to engender, design the educational system so that those heading for low-skilled work are kept away from working and are treated as a nuisance at best, a problem at worst, regulate them out of creating new businesses, give strong rights to domestic incumbents to lock them out, mislead them into thinking they can gain more through benevolent politicians than helping themselves, make them feel second class no matter how hard they try, etc.

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